The headline: fewer claims, steady money
HMRC’s September 2025 release, the first it notes as reflecting the reformed rates, shows support of £7.6 billion (down 2%) from 46,950 claims (down 26%), on expenditure of £46.1 billion (down 1%). Split by the old scheme labels the year still carried: £3.15 billion through the SME scheme and £4.41 billion through RDEC.
Those three percentages moving together tell one story. Expenditure barely moved, support barely moved, and a quarter of claims disappeared. The exits were concentrated among small claims contributing little value: exactly the population the notification requirement, the AIF and the sector campaigns were aimed at. The same release records the mechanics: the SME scheme’s cut rates and RDEC’s rise, feeding through for the first time.
The concentration, and how to read it honestly
The distribution matters more than the mean. Sixty-one per cent of claims sit in cost bands up to £50,000: a long tail of small claims. Meanwhile 54% of the amount claimed sits in claims above £1 million, and London alone accounts for 24% of claims and 31% of value. Any “average claim” number constructed from this distribution is marketing, not information, which is why this site does not use one.
For a claimant, two practical readings. First, small claims remain the majority by count, so smallness alone is not suspicious; what left the system was small-and-weak, not small. Second, the value concentration explains HMRC’s posture: protecting the Exchequer means scrutinising the big end hard while screening the long tail cheaply, which is precisely the AIF-plus-checks architecture described on the crackdown page.
What we will watch in the next edition
Three lines will make the next release genuinely informative. Whether claim volumes stabilise, which would confirm the exit of the marginal tail rather than an ongoing slide. How the first merged-scheme periods present once they dominate the data, including how ERIS volumes compare with the old intensive population. And whether the error-and-fraud series keeps falling alongside, the companion numbers HMRC publishes in its annual report. When the edition lands, this page will be re-cut against it, with the same rule applied: dated figures, sourced on the page, and no averages sold as expectations.
Frequently asked questions
Why did claim numbers fall so sharply?
The release covers the first year materially affected by the reformed rates and the compliance layer. A 26% fall in claims alongside a 2% fall in support is consistent with the smallest and weakest claims leaving the system, which was the stated policy intention, not with genuine R&D activity collapsing.
Is a smaller claim population good or bad for us?
For sound claims, mostly good: less noise to be confused with, and HMRC capacity concentrating on fewer cases cuts both ways but rewards clean files. The bar did not move for you; the crowd around it thinned.
Do these statistics say anything about my likely claim value?
No, and be wary of anyone using averages that way: the amount-claimed distribution is dominated by claims above £1 million, which drags any mean far from a typical company. Your claim value comes from your qualifying base, nowhere else.
When does the next release land?
The series has run annually in the autumn. We update this analysis when a new edition publishes; the figures on this page are from the September 2025 edition covering tax year 2023-24.